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Post by Entendance on Jan 27, 2017 7:45:44 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Feb 7, 2017 4:56:39 GMT -5
"...While day trading can be a profitable approach, a beginning trader needs to understand the reasons why the odds are stacked against day trading. Hint: the reason deals with the need for a trader to have an “edge.” The reality is that HFT and quant operations have the edge on a daily basis – so a day trader must compete with firms that know spec orders in advance in order to be profitable. I am NOT saying that ALL spec day traders are doomed. I am simply stating that the odds of success in day trading are far less than for position..." ***Trading Expectations – The enemy of traders
"..what is it that matters? 1.Your winning rate 2.The average size of your wins 3.Your losing rate 4.The average size of your losses With these four metrics, you can compute your expectancy to know whether you’ll be profitable in the long run..." ***Trading Lessons
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Post by Entendance on Feb 15, 2017 12:17:29 GMT -5
Research shows that the first five minutes of light exercise in nature delivers the biggest mood booster of time spent outside - making this a realistic mindfulness practice for even the busiest person... ***The Forgotten Five-Minute Mindful Mood Booster
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Post by Entendance on Feb 16, 2017 9:23:11 GMT -5
Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.: Five Key Questions Traders Need to be Asking
Here are five helpful questions that traders too rarely ask: 1) What was the price path of what I was trading *after* I stopped out of the trade? Does my exit execution actually add value? 2) What has been the price path of what I've been trading after I entered the trade? Does my entry execution have positive expected value, or am I better off entering in a rule-based, mechanical fashion? 3) When I've added to trades, what has been the P/L just for those added pieces? Does adding to trades truly add to my profitability? 4) What has been the price path of trades I decide to not take because of lack of conviction? Does my conviction in an idea truly correlate with the profitability of trading that idea? 5) How does my P/L behave after I've had a string of winning trades? A string of losers? Does recent performance affect my trading, and--if so--is that impact positive or negative?
Tough to come up with answers for better trading if we're not asking the right questions. Perhaps the best question of all: How much time do you spend studying your trading vs. studying the markets you trade?
Anybody who doesn't use trailing stops is going to be out of business at some point. It's not if, it's when. -Entendance
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Post by Entendance on Feb 17, 2017 8:39:26 GMT -5
Gold and Silver Dealer Hedging
Offshore Gold & Silver Storage
"Ten things learned from traders in Chicago (every serious trader I met reads TraderFeed)"
Most important mental blind spots for traders.
"The hard part is not figuring out what the most crowded trades are or knowing which stories are being most heavily bet upon. It’s knowing when ideas have been taken too far or something else has happened which will change things. And then getting the timing right."
"Hedging" is the practice of allocating a minority percentage of your investments to safer or inversely-correlated holdings relative to the majority of what's in your portfolio. So how to do you go about doing it?
More on Velocity Shares and Short or Ultra ETFs here
If you like this beach, then you can help your friends locate it by letting them know about Fred & EntendanceInvestors Beach. Let's all make this place a thriving sheltered Club for excellence, education and information.
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Post by Entendance on Feb 21, 2017 2:24:04 GMT -5
"Too many traders have an obsession with Winning Trades. I hate to be the bearer of bad news to some of you, but taking losses is the primary job description of a market speculator. If Losing Trades offend you or upset your emotional chemistry, if you consider “being wrong” to be a character fault or a “problem” with your trading approach, if you even think that the marketplace cares what you think or what you do, then market speculation is probably not for you. Trading is mostly an exercise of throwing mud against the wall to see what sticks – and most lumps of mud fall quickly to the floor. I have known many extremely profitable career traders over the years and very few of them have a win rate in excess of 50%. Almost to a person, these traders view taking losses (many losses) as the process of finding winners. I am not offended by being wrong on a market call – it is absolutely not a big deal to me. It is always an amusement to me when tweeters go out of their way to remind me of bad market calls. To be a successful profit taker, a trader must first become good at taking losses. Sorry – both profits and losses are part of trading. I know of no other service similar to the Factor that provides a frank discussion of losing trades, losing days, losing weeks, losing months and even losing years (I have experienced several net losing years along the way). I am in no way embarrassed to be wrong on my market analysis or on trades. If Losing Trades and being wrong bothers you then trading is not for you. If you become obsessed with Winning Trades and making money back in the same stock, forex pair or futures contract in which you lost capital, then you need to seriously examine if you should be involved in market speculation." -Peter Brandt
Brett Steenbarger: Who should I try to dissuade from trading?
***20 Terrible Ways to Trade
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Post by Entendance on Feb 25, 2017 7:00:25 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Mar 27, 2017 13:18:44 GMT -5
<...The “Fed put” has encouraged Trillions to flow into the risk markets. Trillions of “money” have gravitated to “passive” trend-following securities market products and structures...> ***Discussions on the Fed Put
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Post by Entendance on Apr 8, 2017 9:14:59 GMT -5
"...They ARE trading their personalities. Show me a losing trader and I'll show you someone acting out their personality in risk-taking. Consider examples drawn from the "big five" personality traits:
* The trader who lacks conscientiousness in his/her personal life fails to achieve consistency in trading. The trader who is overly conscientious fails to innovate when market conditions change.
* The trader who lacks emotional stability in his/her life trades impulsively and emotionally. The trader who is highly emotionally stable has difficulty taking proper risk out of fear of upsetting the emotional apple cart.
* The trader who is highly introverted or extroverted allows internal or external stimuli to interfere with decision making.
* The trader who is highly open to experience becomes so enamored of new ideas that his/her trading becomes skewed by the latest shiny toy. The trader lacking openness to experience finds one way to make money and can't do anything else even after that one way loses its edge.
* The trader who is very likeable has difficulty tuning out people and becomes easily distracted by noise. The trader who lacks likeability alienates the very colleagues that could help inform his or her trading.
In other words, traders lose money BECAUSE they are trading their personalities. Every personality trait brings potential assets and liabilities to trading. Sometimes, our personalities pose severe challenges to trading success. Every personality asset, when overutilized, brings its own set of problems.
There is only one source of making money in markets, and that is identifying recurring patterns in market behavior and exploiting those in a manner that provides solid reward relative to risk. We marshal and attenuate various personality traits to identify and exploit those patterns. Success comes, not from indulging our personalities, but from knowing which traits to draw upon and which to work around. That is called wisdom." ***The Real Reason Traders Lose Money
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Post by Entendance on Apr 10, 2017 12:06:05 GMT -5
Trading is filled with coulda, woulda shouldas. Such is the life of a discretionary trader. Live with it or leave it. -Peter Brandt
There are no perfect entries: Breakout may be false. Pullback may never come. "Confirmation" may be late. Faster you accept, faster you learn. Being a trader is not about: Predictions Calls Opinions. It is about: Risk/reward ratios. Position size. An edge. Emotional intelligence
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Post by Entendance on Jun 14, 2017 12:36:26 GMT -5
"...There is a famous investor's anecdote from Joe Kennedy, the father of John F. Kennedy, about the onset of the Great Depression – he relates that one day, just before the crash of 1929, a shoe shine boy tried to give him stock tips. He realized at that moment that when the shoe shiner is offering market tips the market is too popular for its own good. He cashed out of the market and avoided the crash that many people now wrongly assume was the “cause” of the Great Depression. I don't know that this story is true, but if it is, it is an interesting example of peak economic delusion. We do not have quite the same investment environment as existed in those days. Today, algorithmic computers dominate the functions of the stock market, chasing headlines and each other, but this does not and will not save the economy from another depression. In fact, all they have done along with substantial aid from central banks is artificially elevate equities while every other fiscal indicator implodes. But this farce in stocks could not succeed for so many years without help. I would say the real “shoe shine boys” of our era are actually the dullards in the mainstream financial media, stabbing in the dark and desperate to believe that the astonishing “recovery” since 2009 is real...." ***Peak Economic Delusion Signals Coming Crisis
H/T Tom from Florida
Thanks to the central banksters and their rotten corrupt politicians, what used to be a market is now just a casino where gamblers bet on what the next central bank policy statement will be. Forget about price discovery, supply and demand, charts, etc. All markets have become instruments of Deep State policy.
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Post by Entendance on Aug 30, 2017 5:40:29 GMT -5
***E. on twitter "The mistake I see traders making is that they spend the lion's share of their effort on coming up with the next trades--not on the process of winning. They focus on making money, not on getting better. It would be unthinkable for them to go a full trading day or week without placing a trade, but they think nothing of going a day or week with no concrete work at the self-improvement that is the source of winning. Imagine an athlete who felt the need to enter competitions every day, not wanting to miss any opportunity to win. So much time would be spent on the playing field or court that little or no time would be spent in the gym. Playing time would eclipse practice time. Conditioning would fall apart; performance would show the effect of the lack of drilling and practice. The need to win would get in the way of winning. That is the greatest mistake I see among traders. They want to be on the field; they want to score. They are fearful of missing opportunities to win. So they don't go to the gym; they don't drill and practice; and over time they lose their edge. Their inner voices reflect the ups and downs of the most recent performance; their inner voices are not inner coaches.
As the video suggests, suppose your inner voice while trading scrolled across the screens of other traders. Would you be proud to display your inner voice, or would you be ashamed? If you wouldn't want your inner voice to go public, why would you want it filling your head?" -Brett S.
When all the experts and forecasts agree—something else is going to happen. Just because it hasn’t happened yet, doesn’t mean it is not going to. And of course, that then leads to Rule #4, which also has to do with excessive manic behavior: Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. They do not correct by going sideways! -David Rosenberg here
Telling the truth: (P + G) - M = I
Make America Great Again: Buy Extremely Overvalued Stocks
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Post by Entendance on Sept 24, 2017 5:20:26 GMT -5
"It's really true: confidence doesn't come from success alone, but rather from facing failure and moving beyond it. When you've been tested and tested and tested again, you begin to recognize that the tests are what make you stronger. They provide the opportunity of learning, not merely the threat of loss. But many traders fail to look fear in the face. They chronically undersize positions in an effort to prevent major losses. When their ideas work out, however, their undersizing also prevents major gains. Over time, those traders are nagged by the sense that they have skill, learning, and an edge in markets, but are not taking proper advantage of their strengths. So they come to me and ask for help in risk-taking. They want to size up positions, but can't bring themselves to do it. It's too scary to look fear in the face, so they settle on quick glances. Why is this? Why are some very talented traders unable to take optimal advantage of their talents?
I recently met with a group of traders and reviewed their journals. Most of the journal entries were very detailed, suggesting hard work and desire to improve. The entries went through the trades they put on, how those trades went, and what they could have done better to manage the positions. Sometimes the journal entries also spoke of missed opportunities and positions sized too large or taken in the absence of a clear signal. My first reaction was that these journals are a waste of time. They outline problems, but don't contain any detailed plans for correcting those problems. But I was wrong. The journals were worse than a waste of time. They were killing the traders.
Look at it this way: Suppose I kept a detailed journal of your life and wrote down everything you did wrong, as well as the things you could have done better. Better yet, imagine approaching a young son or daughter in this manner. What would be the result? Damaged self-confidence. If you keep harping on what you do wrong, why would you internalize a sense of opportunity and achievement? If all you focus on is what you could have done better, eventually you'll believe that all you can do is fall short. A good sports coach or military leader knows when to praise and when to criticize: when to build up and when to tear down. Without the building up, all we do is tear down. So what happens? We make money but internalize the sense of "could have done better". What we don't internalize is confidence. We're never on the front foot when taking risk because we've programmed ourselves to expect shortcoming. Take a look at your trading reviews and journals. Do they inspire? Do they focus on specific learning and achievement, or are they simply ventings of frustration and things that didn't go as well as possible? Many, many traders are not working on their trading at all. They are working on tearing themselves down." -Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.
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Post by Entendance on Jul 4, 2018 5:47:17 GMT -5
Amateur build the Ark, professionals built the Titanic. -Anonimous
“Unlike much of the recent bull market, present market conditions reflect not only extreme valuations (including a full syndrome of overvalued, overbought, overbullish features), but also divergence and dispersion in our measures of market internals. It’s that deterioration in market internals that threatens to unleash the beast that has been patiently biding its time within extreme valuations. Given those extreme valuations, I continue to believe that the completion of this market cycle will be a terrible ordeal for passive investors.” More here
"...If history is still a useful guide, we’re in for another bear market in financial assets, which sparks central bank easing, which lights a rocket under gold and silver"
"In the 90’s, it was tech stocks. In the 2000’s, it was real estate. And I tell you what that asset class is today…" More here Never ever underestimate Italian banksters & wannabe politicians. E.
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Post by Entendance on Jul 21, 2018 3:01:22 GMT -5
"...Real money, the money of last resort, and the type of money that fulfills the four functions of money identified by Jevons, is physical gold. Readers, whether they believe it or not, would be remiss not to hoard a little gold – or silver – bullion as we journey from summer into fall. There’s doom and gloom out there, just yonder the horizon. The time to prepare for the end of fake money is now." ***Are You Prepared for the End of Fake Money?
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Post by Entendance on Jul 31, 2018 3:44:38 GMT -5
It’s been well-documented that individuals have a strong tendency to invest in a manner destructive to their returns. The illustration below depicts the difference between “convex” and “concave” investing behavior.
While investors know that buying high and selling low isn’t a good strategy, the research shows that individual investors tend to buy after periods of strong performance (when valuations are higher and expected returns are thus lower) and sell after periods of poor performance (when valuations are lower and expected returns are thus higher). Research has found this destructive behavior has led to investors managing to underperform the very funds in which they invest. What’s the explanation for this irrational behavior? Recency. Recency is the tendency we have to overweight recent events/trends and ignore long-term evidence. This can result in behavior opposite to what a disciplined investor should be doing (rebalancing) to maintain their portfolio’s asset allocation. Disciplined rebalancing produces the concave strategy. -Larry Swedroe
"You’re never going to save everyone. There are some people that are never going to get it. It’s sad, but true. There will always be investors that can’t help themselves or get out of their own way. I used to think everyone could be saved if they would only learn. But changing behavior is simply too difficult for many. In order for one group of investors to prosper, another group has to fail. It’s an unfortunate truth of the financial markets." -Ben Carlson
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Post by Entendance on Aug 22, 2018 8:12:18 GMT -5
"...Entropy in a system increases. If central banks and institutions reduce their frantic buying – reduce their energy injections – into the stock market systems, a collapse is possible..." Entropy and Markets
Traders commonly make the mistake of treating their emotions as problems. They want to banish frustration, greed, fear, and boredom from their experience. The reality is that these emotions provide information: they are there for a reason. We can either become aware of emotional experience and make use of it, or we can try to banish it and run the risk of having those emotions drive our next decisions. The problem occurs, you see, when we are not fully aware of our emotional experience, when we're not mindful. That's when frustration or boredom can drive actions that we would never take otherwise. Hence the value of the pause function. Pause provides us with the opportunity for mindfulness. When we pause and interrupt our activity flow, our attention can switch from external to internal and we can gain self-awareness. This enables us to identify what we're feeling and why we might be feeling it. For example, I noticed earlier in the week that I was feeling a bit antsy, wanting to put on a trade that seemed to be setting up. Long (and sometimes painful!) experience has taught me that trades placed when antsy are as likely to be those notorious Fear Of Missing Out trades as well-conceived ones. Indeed, in the incident this past week, all my signals had not lined up. The trade was setting up on short-term criteria (buy an oversold condition), but made absolutely no sense on the higher time frame (weakening market; inability to make new highs on buying pressure). Pausing allowed me to nix the trade--and save a good amount of money. Music that was all played notes and no pauses would lose its ability to move us. Speech that is all words and no pauses would be near incoherent. Pauses are as much a part of meaning as actions and expressions. A life lived without pause is a life lived mindlessly. Creating pauses during the day and week allows us to stand apart from ourselves and ask the important questions. Pauses give us control, allowing us to be truly active and not merely reactive. Pause is what turns emotions into emotional intelligence. -B.Steenbarger
I’m ‘Financially Ruined’: Cryptocurrency Investors are Crushed by Losses of 70% or More H/T Tom from Florida
The Entendance Beach & The Cryptocurrencies Tragedy of Speculation
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Post by Entendance on Sept 10, 2018 4:54:36 GMT -5
"Heraclitus, the ancient Greek philosopher of change, is said to have taught that one cannot step in the same river twice. So too it seems that the international political economy is always in a state of flux; becoming never being. The synchronized global upturn appears to be giving way to renewed divergence. It is hardly surprising that the US is expanding at a robust pace given fiscal stimulus, spending increases and deregulation that has been pursued. What may have been less expected is the sharp slow down in Japan in Europe this year. The likely upward revision to Japan's Q2 GDP, due to a surge in capital expenditures (12.8% year-over-year, the strongest in 11 years), will not alter this assessment. The 0.5% initial estimate for Q2 GDP would have to double to for H1 18 growth to match H2 17. Moreover, Japan runs a significant fiscal deficit that is expected to increase from 3.5% of GDP in 2017 to 3.8% this year. Japan has not recorded a budget deficit of less than 3.0% since 2007. The Bank of Japan's balance sheet may be growing more slowing since the introduction of "yield curve control" two years ago, but by increasing the size of its purchases this month through 10-year notes, is a clear signal to the market not to confuse the fewer pre-announced buying days with some sort of stealth tapering. The risk of a debt crisis, which many had been "betting" on with little avail, has been effectively minimized by the central bank now holding roughly 45% of outstanding JGBs. This risk has been supplanted by the real possibility that Japan's business expansion cycle ends while monetary policy is still open-spigot and with a cyclically adjusted deficit relatively large. This past week went from bad to worse for Germany. It may have been the worst week in years. Recall that after a soft patch at the start of the year, the survey data (PMI, IFO, ZEW) pointed to a recovery of the European economic engine and the world's fourth-largest economy. Such optimism has been dashed. The week began with a downward revision from the flash manufacturing and services PMI. The manufacturing PMI, perhaps undermined by the heightened trade tensions, was revised back to the June low, which itself was the lowest since the end of 2016. The service sector PMI was revised lower, but still was an improvement from July. In fact, the recovery in the service sector looks intact, It bottomed in May and is now back at levels seen in February. It is difficult to have much faith Germany services decoupling from industry for long, and there more indications of weakness in manufacturing. Factory orders, for which economists expected a strong rebound from the 4.0% decline in June, fell 0.9% in July. Factory orders fell in four months in 2017. In 2018, they have fallen in six of the first seven months. This was followed by an unexpected and large 1.1% fall in July industrial output. The small upward revision to the June series (from -0.9% to 0.7%) meant little. The 1.1% year-over-year pace is the weakest since January 2017. To round it out, Germany also reported an unexpected decline (-0.9%) in exports. The Bloomberg consensus had expected a 0.3% increase after a flat report in June. In the first seven months of the year, German exports have fallen by 0.1% on average. In the same period last year, exports averaged a 0.7% increase. This string of German data, the widening premium beings demanded of the periphery, and trade tensions will likely color ECB President Draghi's remarks following the ECB meeting on September 13. The risk is that the staff trims this year's GDP forecast of 2.1% made in June. When everything is said and done, between June 1 and September 3, the euro had fallen a third of one percent against the dollar. It was firmer against most of its other trading partners, except Switzerland. Oil prices were also essentially flat. As a consequence, the staff's inflation forecast is unlikely to change much from the 1.7% headline pace forecast in June. Still, it seems unreasonable to expect Draghi to signal a course change. In Q4, the ECB purchases will fall to 15 bln euros a month and then stopping at the end of the year. The ECB will continue to reinvest the maturing proceeds, and through this remain active market participants and a source of demand. Starting next month, the purchase by the ECB and BOJ will no longer offset the unwinding of the Fed's balance sheet (increases to a terminal velocity of $50 bln a month). The Rubicon will be crossed. The euro has fallen on the day of the last seven ECB meetings. The last time the euro appreciated on the day the ECB met was last September. Over these seven meetings, it has fallen by an average of 0.83% and ranged from a 0.1% decline after the January meeting to a 1.9% drop after the June meeting. The euro's performance was evenly divided among the eight 2017 meetings between advances and declines." -Marc Chandler
"Gazelles are a an antelope species, and as such, are nimble creatures. They are also susceptible to being easily spooked, and may end up running with the wrong crowd. These traits alone would make them horrible traders, but there are things that a skittish trader can learn from this fleet-footed creatures. •Being nervous is not a good trading trait. If you are easily spooked, trading is probably not for you. •Following the mindless herd is a recipe for disaster. Instead, follow your trading plan, no matter what. •Assume that you are not the apex predator. There is always going to be someone more experienced than you on the other side of the trade. •Be agile. Know when you should cut your losses and get out. •Being agile doesn’t mean making knee-jerk decisions. Follow the signals. Period.
•Avoid the tall grass. Don’t get in so far over your head with large position sizing and loose stop losses that you can’t avoid the inevitable. •Know your area well. Make sure that you fully understand the market you choose to trade. •Expect the unexpected. There are always unknowns. Make sure you are following the 1% loss of capital rule, and you don’t have to worry about disasters. There are many traders who are too afraid to dip their toes in the water, and others who may be too brave for their own good. Find a comfortable place psychologically, where you are well educated, but not consumed by your own ego. Only then, will you begin to trade in a good place, and realize your full potential as a trader." -Holly Burns
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Post by Entendance on Jan 25, 2019 4:28:05 GMT -5
"Dear investors, advisory board members and friends, We hereby want to inform you that as of the beginning of January, our proprietary inflation indicator has switched from “FALLING INFLATION” to a full blown “RISING INFLATION” signal. In the following please find a detailed analysis and interpretation of the Inflation Signal and our current macro thoughts, as well as the impact on the investment process. Ladies and gentlemen, we believe that current valuations in inflation sensitive assets are a tremendous buying opportunity which we want to utilize. Best regards, Mark J. Valek & Ronald-Peter Stoeferle Incrementum AG" Incrementum Inflation Signal: Reversal To “Rising Inflation” – Interpretation and Investment Impact
Brace for impact
The Beach & Stagflation
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Post by Entendance on Feb 27, 2019 6:54:12 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Jun 21, 2019 17:24:37 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Aug 31, 2019 17:52:40 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Dec 29, 2019 5:14:59 GMT -5
Deep Waters
"...If these bubble-valued stock markets required epic Fed easing to soar in 2019, what happens to them in 2020 as that vanishes? At best SPX gains will be far more subdued, at worst the stock markets will sell off sharply and roll over into their Fed-delayed bear. But make no mistake, today’s lofty stock-market levels are totally fake. They are wildly distorted, directly conjured by the Federal Reserve’s incessant manipulations..." Fed’s Fake Stock Markets
"...After ten years of non-stop interventions, the central banks have created the worst asset price bubble in history and are now trapped..." A decade best shunned & forgotten
"...The next bubble, the debt bubble, keeps building, fed by growing inequality, rapacious corporations who use tax breaks to buy back their own stock to artificially inflate their share prices, individuals who remain enslaved to the banks that reap enormous profits from them as they descend further into debt, and politicians who encourage the whole charade by cutting corporate tax rates, keeping interest rates near zero, and borrowing more through deficit financing to please the interest groups that keep them in power..." Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis
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Post by Entendance on Jan 21, 2020 3:41:28 GMT -5
The Case for $2,000-an-Ounce Gold Gets Stronger
Dear members, in December 2015, gold prices made a low of around $1,050. Now the yellow precious metal trades around $1,550. That’s an increase of close to 50% in matter of a few years. Sadly, despite this solid performance, the yellow precious metal continues to get ignored. I have been bullish on gold since 2015 and I remain bullish. No matter how you look at it, we are inching closer to a time when volatility, uncertainty, and devaluation becomes reality. Think long-term and don’t ignore gold. It could protect your portfolio from massive losses. Gold prices of $2,000 an ounce could be reached soon. E.
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Post by Entendance on Feb 22, 2020 3:06:55 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Mar 5, 2020 23:44:46 GMT -5
People should be up in arms that they once again are being forced to bear the burden of public bailouts for industry and the banks.. when for YEARS they have been told that the US Economy is booming and its the best it has ever been... but instead they will stay silent, just as they are supposed to.. welcome to the NWO.. YOU ARE SLAVES -Greg Mannarino
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Post by Entendance on May 9, 2020 4:25:46 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on May 19, 2020 1:00:28 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Jul 25, 2020 3:25:50 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Jan 9, 2021 7:00:31 GMT -5
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