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Post by Entendance on Oct 11, 2023 4:05:18 GMT -5
The great merit of Gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice. -Henry Hazlitt
The Big Picture We continue to tell our global readers to remain focused on the big picture for gold. There is massive money printing taking place. This money printing must be done in order to sustain the system. Therefore Western debt levels will continue to skyrocket, and fiat money will continue to be devalued, resulting in a historic bull market for commodities. All of this is bullish for gold and silver. Do not be distracted by the games that have been played in the paper markets. Continue to trade in fiat money for physical gold and silver and remain focused on the big picture during times of volatility. -King World News
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Post by Entendance on Oct 16, 2023 3:55:03 GMT -5
Silver is the real power of the people, and it is the one thing the Cartel fears more than anything in the entire world because if the Cartel can maintain control of Silver, the Fed and the Federal government can maintain freedom and liberty destroying power over the people, and it’s obvious we’re at the end of the current Cartel’s grip on Silver, with the “current Cartel” being the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund), the Fed, and agents acting on behalf of one or both. Unless it’s not blindingly obvious, let me go ahead and spell it out: This fight will go on for the Cartel until the bitter end, and the closer we get to that end, the uglier and nastier the markets and the economy will be. -Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart
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Post by Entendance on Oct 20, 2023 2:06:09 GMT -5
Fed is only central bank still fighting gold, London metals trader Maguire says
October 19, 2023 Bill’s commentary: “Something old, something new”, yet still correct…
As many of you know, I began writing back in late 2006 and wrote steadily until about 2 years ago. To be honest, I got burned out from writing over the years as it seemed I was “re” covering ground I had already spoken about. While the end of the road has taken much more time than I or anyone else could imagine, that “end” is here and now. I can say here and now as the math of overleverage, coupled with crippling interest rates has arrived. In the past, central banks and sovereign treasuries could always bail out the system. Now, THEY are a huge part of the problem and in no way can they save anything, much less themselves… With that said, I came across an article I wrote a few years back and will publish it here. I plan to dig up a few older articles that I believe are still “correct” and will update them with a few current notes. Hopefully it will be a refresher for long term readers or eye openers for new readers?
April, 2017 $5,000 silver? A catchy title this “$5,000 Silver?” don’t you think? Am I crazy? Is this even possible? In who’s lifetime? Ours or our great, great grandchildren long after we are dead and buried? The best way to look at this I believe is to briefly look at silver’s big brother gold and then postulate whether it’s possible or not. To begin, let’s look at what happened in 1980 and why gold traded up to $875 in the first place. As Jim Sinclair has said many times, gold “moved in a manner to cover the value of foreign held debt of the U.S.”. He has also said “$50,000 gold is possible and it may turn out that this figure is far too low”. Before you laugh and start firing spitballs at me or Mr. Sinclair, I remind you of his call of “gold at $1,650 per ounce by Jan. 2011”. He said this when gold was $350 per ounce or so and the year was around 2004 if memory serves me correctly. He was called a nutjob and far worse …he was correct in retrospect and off in his timing by about eight months …SEVEN YEARS AHEAD OF TIME!
To refresh your memory, let’s do some basic mathematics. The U.S. purportedly has 262 million ounces of gold. (As a side note, if you understand how much gold China has imported just over the last six years and compare that to global production, then you understand the U.S. has in all likelihood “dishoarded” much of this gold). We can compare this 262 million ounces to our national debt rounded off at $18 trillion. Doing the math, if we had to back our debt with the gold we supposedly have, the number currently comes up to $68,700 per ounce!
Before you call me nuts, I have one question for you. Were foreigners to decide that “dollars” for any (many!) reason was no longer acceptable, what would we “pay” with? Remember, since the dollar is the reserve currency, the U.S. holds almost NOTHING in foreign reserves. Why should we have to hold foreign reserves, we issue THE reserve currency?! And yes, I understand the debt is “contracted” in dollars so all we have to do is print more to make the payment. All I am saying is this, if the U.S. was forced somehow to actually settle the debt …in gold, our gold would need to be valued at $68,700 per ounce “now”. I say “now” because our debt burden will only grow larger, our gold holdings (IF they truly still exist) will not grow or “breed” making our stash larger with new little goldlings. My point is this, $68,700 is a credible number only assuming we do have the gold we claim to have.
Now let’s look at silver. Silver is taken out of the ground at roughly a 10-1 ratio to gold production. This number includes “by-product” silver. The current price ratio is 70-1 or thereabouts, nonsensical when you factor in the price to produce silver is higher than the market price. This situation argues for severe supply cutbacks in the future unless the price goes higher to allow for a mining profit. Silver is also a very miniscule market when looked at from a dollar standpoint. There are roughly 800 million ounces produced globally which in dollar terms is less than $15 billion. In today’s world, $15 billion is nothing! Individual companies are bought and sold for more every day.
Another aspect to silver is the “low hanging fruit” has already been found and mined. Many companies have high graded production just to stay in business. New silver deposit exploration has found very little over the last 5-10 years, current new exploration today is almost non existent because the funds from operations have turned into losses. The capital to look for new silver deposits simply does not exist.
New “uses” for silver, be they electrical, industrial, solar, medical or other seem to be popping up regularly. Demand will increase over time. And speaking of time, it is estimated that silver may become the next “extinct element” in about 20 years. Does this mean there will be no silver left on the planet? No, new silver will be found and dug up but probably not enough to satisfy the fledging demand of 100’s of years ago unless new mining technology becomes available.
What comes our way is a once in hundred’s of years currency event. Never before has the world not had a single currency backed by silver or gold. There is no place to hide from the currency derivatives/debt/currency meltdown except in the actual metals themselves, “receipts” will not do this time!
To finish, I would like to paraphrase something from the Bible. In Matthew 25, verses 14-30, the “Parable of talents” is written. It speaks of a master going on a trip and leaving three of his servants’ bags of gold to care for while he is away. To one he gave 10, another he gave two and the third servant just one bag. He did so based upon his judgment of their abilities to handle money. When the master returned, the servant who was given 10 bags, returned 20 and the servant given two bags returned four. The last servant, who dug a hole in the ground and buried his bag of gold, dug it up and returned it intact. The last servant was scorned and called lazy for doing nothing with his “talent”. Please understand in those days, “talent” was considered weight or coinage but can be looked at today as one’s talent or ability, it should not be wasted.
In my opinion, because the “moneychangers” have so rigged and fraudulently ruined the global monetary system, now is not the time to “earn interest”. Now is not the time to try to “make money”. The system is on the verge of a mathematically certain collapse where institutions and governments themselves stand to perish. Believe this or not, mathematics don’t lie. Now is the time for you to be the third servant and bury you bag of whatever you have accumulated. Get it out of the system and thus out of the way of the financial carnage coming. You will have something to “start over” with and give you a head start. As Richard Russell has said, right now is NOT about making money, it is all about not losing everything.
Will silver go to $5,000 per ounce? Who knows, we may have a completely different currency in short order, and nothing will be quoted in “dollars” anymore. All I can tell you is that when gold and silver are remonetized back into the system, their purchasing powers will be at least equal to if not many times higher than these depressed levels. In “dollar terms” they may approach infinity! Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Please note that current on books US Treasury debt is now over $33 trillion rather than 18 when this was written and the silver to gold ratio is 85 to 1 versus 70-1 at the time of writing. Were US “held” gold (no audit has been done since 1956? Why not?) to be required to extinguish current debt, the price of gold would need to be well north of $125,000 per ounce. The silver to gold ratio held at 16-1 for hundred’s of years. Silver would be roughly $8,000 per ounce in this instance…
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Post by Entendance on Oct 25, 2023 2:11:28 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Oct 28, 2023 5:15:49 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Oct 31, 2023 10:45:27 GMT -5
Banksters Cartel International LXXX
'...BlackRock is a perfect example of why money printing and central banking always cause the rich to get richer. Not only do they stand closer to the money spigot, but they’re well-connected to do favors for government officials. And the favors are returned. As excess money is created, lots of it flows into the stock and bond markets. But the average guy doesn’t know what stocks to buy, so he relies on these money managers...'
The E. Beach advice to buyers of Physical Precious Metals is the same as always: if you purchased Gold/Silver bars/coins and you can't hold them in your hand, they aren't yours.
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Post by Entendance on Nov 3, 2023 11:14:45 GMT -5
The gold/silver ratio, which indicates how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold, is currently hovering around 84:1. Historically, over the past 25 years, it has averaged closer to 60:1, with a notable move all the way to 32:1 in April of 2011. It is also worth noting that prior to that move, exactly one year earlier (April 2010) the ratio sat at 65:1.
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Post by Entendance on Nov 4, 2023 5:48:12 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Nov 7, 2023 4:49:01 GMT -5
'The PBoC is in a hurry to buy enormous amounts of gold, indicating it’s preparing for substantial changes in the dollar-centric international monetary system. Based on information from industry sources and my personal calculations, total gold purchases by the Chinese central bank (reported and unreported) in Q3 accounted for 179 tonnes. Year-to-date the PBoC bought 593 tonnes, which is 80% more than what it bought in the first three quarters last year. Its total estimated gold holdings are 5,220 tonnes, more than twice what’s officially disclosed at 2,192 tonnes...' The People's Bank of China is covertly buying large amounts of gold... PBoC in a Hurry to Buy Gold: Covertly Bought 593t of Gold YTD
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Post by Entendance on Nov 9, 2023 11:47:13 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Nov 11, 2023 8:03:01 GMT -5
A downgrade in a country’s credit rating can indicate increased sovereign risk. Gold is considered a non-sovereign asset, meaning it is not directly impacted by the financial health of any single country.
'...The big question is how far and where will the huge public anger and contempt lead to. A historic revolt is underway. What comes next? Can it be mobilized constructively to overthrow decadent dictatorships of capitalist oligarchy that have dominated Western states under the guise of democracy? One thing is evinced. The Western elite systems are damaged beyond repair and rehabilitation. The crucifixion of the Palestinian people has created a Pandora’s Box. Western corruption – deep, systematic, historical corruption – is now out and can’t be stuffed back in again by the elite rulers trying to cover up. The genocidal crimes of the Western powers cannot be unseen or explained away this time. The duplicity and bankruptcy are damaging to the existential core. Ultimately, however, there may be hope for a better, fairer and more just world.
'Biden could end this with one phone call. With. One. Phone call. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either lying or ignorant. This mass slaughter is happening because Washington wants it to happen...' Biden Could End All This With One Phone Call
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Post by Entendance on Nov 14, 2023 3:30:48 GMT -5
Bullion Star infographic dramatically illustrates gold price suppression by U.S.
As the world’s preeminent money, now and throughout history, gold is seen by governments and monetary authorities as strategically critical and often a matter of national security. Not least in the United States, where although the US government and US banks downplay gold, it is precisely because they are terrified of gold’s rise, that these entities are heavily involved in the gold market in a nefarious manner. This visually stunning new infographic from BullionStar puts the spotlight on the deep involvement of the US Government and Wall Street banks in the gold market, and their nefarious manipulation of precious metals prices, illustrating:• The supposed size and location of the US Treasury Gold Reserves but the fact that the US Gold has not been properly audited in over 70 years. What is the US Treasury hiding?
• Five massive Wall Street banks dominant the gold market, trading gigantic trading volumes of COMEX gold futures in a giant paper trading game.
• The international gold price is set by paper gold trading in New York and London, and not by physical gold demand and supply, a flawed pricing that causes physical shortages and high premiums.
• Although Wall Street banks have been prosecuted for manipulating precious metals and their traders jailed, the same banks still continue to operate with impunity in the gold market.
• There is continual gold price suppression during New York (NY) trading hours, with returns during NY hours a fraction of returns outside NY hours. This is statistically impossible.
• A US Government group, the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), oversees interventions into markets. This PPT was infamously active in the US silver market during February 2021 where it oversaw a ‘tamp down’ of the silver price to prevent a financial system crisis.
• The US Government, Wall Street and the US mainstream media constantly work to prevent gold gaining in popularity. This is done to protect the US financial system and the reserve status of the US dollar.
• That this price manipulation can’t go on forever. When it fails, the gold price will again be determined by the forces of supply and demand for physical gold.
Chris Powell of GATA suspects the recent decline in the BIS gold swaps hints that Central Banks are preparing for a higher Gold price...
A downgrade in a country’s credit rating can indicate increased sovereign risk. Gold is considered a non-sovereign asset, meaning it is not directly impacted by the financial health of any single country.
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Post by Entendance on Nov 15, 2023 4:43:42 GMT -5
November 16, 2023:
Gold Trading At A Record $100 Premium In Shanghai
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Post by Entendance on Nov 17, 2023 3:10:01 GMT -5
Ted Butler: An answer long overdue about double-counting in silver Silver market analyst Ted Butler today questions whether there is double-counting in major silver inventories as there long has been with gold reserves at central banks that lease their reserves. Butler writes: 'The issue revolves around the 103 million ounces listed as being held for the I-Shares silver trust (SLV) by the trust's custodian, JPMorgan, in New York and the 134 million ounces held in the JPMorgan Comex warehouse. This creates the unanswered question of whether the 103 million ounces held on behalf of SLV are also a big part of the 134 million ounces held in the JPM Comex warehouse or if the 103 million ounces are separate and distinct from the 134 million ounces in JPM's Comex warehouse. This is a rather simple question that could be of significance. For if the inventories overlap, it would be more evidence of a silver shortage, as well as evidence of the official deception that long has surrounded the monetary metals.' So Butler has put the question to the chairmen of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission...
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Post by Entendance on Nov 18, 2023 8:21:44 GMT -5
'...the outlook couldn’t be better for gold and the Precious Metals sector generally which is believed to be on the verge of breaking out into a major bullmarket that could well be of unprecedented magnitude.'
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Post by Entendance on Nov 21, 2023 11:08:04 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Nov 27, 2023 4:22:00 GMT -5
'...For the Swaps, the position in silver is precarious for other reasons including sheer lack of contract marketability. The Managed Money position is close to even, showing on balance their lack of interest. And the Swaps are similarly balanced — short less that 2,000 contracts net. Unlike in gold, the swing factor is mine hedging, either by silver producers or their banking representatives. With silver’s volatility this is understandable. But if gold breaks above the $2000 level convincingly, will producers be so keen to sell their production forward? The juniors short on cash flow and needing finance have no option. But the larger profitable producers are likely to reduce or even cease their hedging activity. Combined with the lack of market liquidity, the effect on the silver price could be explosive. Underlying the market position in precious metals is the decline in the dollar’s trade weighted index now that bond yields have eased. In the financial establishment, there will be sighs of relief all round, particularly at the Fed. The Fed has two urgent problems. The first is the funding program for a soaring US Government deficit, which is made virtually impossible when bonds are in a bear market. And fending off complaints by foreign central banks of the ruinous effects on their currencies and bonds of the Fed’s interest rate policies. This new trend appears to be supporting gold, which has an eye on the inflationary implications. And foreign holders of dollars, faced with the opportunity of a rally in Treasuries and a fall in the dollar are likely to turn sellers of dollars in favour of gold.' -Alasdair Macleod
The world is now witnessing the end of a currency and financial system which the Chinese already forecast in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window. Again, remember von Mises words: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.” History tells us that we have now reached the point of no return. So denying history at this point will not just be very costly but will lead to a total destruction of investors’ wealth.
POLITICIANS LIE WITHOUT FAIL... ...CHINA FORECAST THE CONSEQUENCES ALREADY IN 1971... ...IRRELEVANT WHICH CURRENCY WINS THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM...
...PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE – ZERO... THE TIME TO PRESERVE WEALTH IS NOW... ...Here are a few of the SINE QUA NON (indispensable conditions) for gold ownership: Gold must be held in physical form. No funds, ETFs or bank held gold. The investor must have direct access to his own gold bars/coins. Any counterparty must be eliminated whenever possible. Gold must be stored in ultra safe vaults outside the banking system. Gold should not be stored in a major city. Gold must be insured. Only gold that you are prepared to lose should be stored at home. Gold should be stored outside your country of residence and in a gold friendly jurisdiction. The country where the gold is stored must have a long history of democracy, political stability and peace...
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Post by Entendance on Nov 30, 2023 0:44:25 GMT -5
September 17, 2023
YES ◾Each gold bar is directly owned by the investor ◾The investor receives a certificate of ownership with the unique serial numbers of his gold bars ◾Gold storage in specialised bullion vaults outside the banking system. ◾The investor has personal access to his gold ◾The investor can physically withdraw all or part of his gold during office hours or in an emergency ◾The investor can send a representative (e.g. accountant) to inspect the gold ◾The gold is insured by a major international insurer ◾Full control over your own physical assets
NO ◾Exchange Traded Funds – A gold ETF is more of a trading tool which mirrors the price of the underlying asset. Not all Gold ETF's are fully backed by the metal! ◾Futures, Unallocated Gold – A 100% derivative of the physical metal and used for speculative or short term hedging purposes. ◾Bank allocated Gold – Allocated gold in a bank means that, on paper, specific bars belong to you only as long as the bank has adequate stock. You have no immediate access to your gold. ◾Bank Safe Deposit Box – You are holding metals outside the Good Delivery chain which makes selling and insurance costly. In case of a longer bank holiday you will not have access. ◾Storing gold at home – If sizeable this is a high risk solution and very difficult to move, insure or sell. ◾Part or Mutual ownership – Owning a share in a bar does not give you full control and access in case of an emergency.
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Post by Entendance on Dec 2, 2023 4:52:56 GMT -5
Matthew Piepenburg December 3, 2023
The world cannot produce much more than a bit over 3,000 tons of gold a year, and there are no major gold finds, so the demand will make the price go up...
December 2, 2023 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: With repeated telephone calls and e-mails, for three weeks your secretary/treasurer has been trying to get the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to answer two simple questions about its gold responsibilities -- questions the New York Fed has answered for others in years past -- but has been unable to get any form of acknowledgment. Would you be kind enough to help? Here are the questions. 1) Does the New York Fed's statement of November 9 asserting that the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Department did not intervene in the foreign exchange markets during the July-September 2023 quarter -- www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2023/20231109 -- cover the gold market as well? 2) Has the New York Fed repatriated any gold to foreign nations this year? If so, how much and to which countries, and how much was repatriated in each month? Answers to these questions might illuminate how the gold market is being directly if surreptitiously influenced by central banks quite apart from any announced purchases of gold for reserves. You can help in two ways. First, try putting the questions directly to the publicists for the New York Fed as your secretary/treasurer has been doing. A list of the New York Fed's publicists with their telephone numbers and e-mail addresses can be found at the bank's internet site here -- www.newyorkfed.org/press -- when you click on the "Media Contacts" line in the middle of the right column. If you have time, try both a telephone call and an e-mail. Second, call or write to your members of Congress and ask them to get the answers for you from the New York Fed. Contact information for U.S. representatives is available here: www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative Contact information for U.S. senators is available here: www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm And of course if you get any response, please let your secretary/treasurer know.
Your secretary/treasurer will bring these questions to the attention of a large number of reporters for mainstream news organizations and some financial letter writers, just in case any are ever allowed or inclined to put critical questions to central banks, the institutions that determine the value of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world but seldom are asked to answer for what they do.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
War is war; greed is greed; hate is hate; murder is murder. And, as always, there will be consequences.
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Post by Entendance on Dec 5, 2023 4:49:46 GMT -5
World is about to discover that the real risk-free asset is Gold Bullion Star gold market analyst Ronan Manly today examines the extreme volatility in the gold price since Friday and concludes that the official sector was involved, and for obvious reasons, among them "to paint the tape with such a hugely plummeting daily candle pattern that it would break the psychology of the market, at least in the near term." Manly quotes an anonymous fund manager: "The reason they manage the U.S. dollar gold price is to make sure that the market doesn't know what risk-free is. And that's what's about to happen when gold breaks higher to new all-time highs. The veil will be lifted."
After 24 years of largely surreptitious official interventions against gold exposed by GATA and others, can this latest and most obvious intervention work for long? Is there any participant in the gold market who still thinks that the New York Fed's trading room and the Bank for International Settlements are mere "conspiracy theories"? Did any participant in the gold market ever really believe that? Were those who asserted as much ever anything less than shills for governments, central banks, and bullion banks?
'...Whatever the trigger(s) for the gold price move to over $2140, we have now seen how the western paper gold markets have reacted, since during the London and COMEX trading hours on Monday 4 December, the gold price has been slammed back down to near $2020, below where it was trading on Thursday 30 November. This $120 intraday down move following the rapid $70 up move clearly indicates that gold is the preeminent monetary asset and is of massive interest to both the western central banks and bullion banks, and to the eastern central banks, and that the gold will move wildly if it becomes a global fight between two sets of competing world powers...'
‘In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.’
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Post by Entendance on Dec 6, 2023 3:34:13 GMT -5
40 Countries Want To Join The Bloc...
Dec 7, 2023 Alasdair Macleod
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Post by Entendance on Dec 9, 2023 4:46:38 GMT -5
Banksters Cartel International LXXXI
This scam would have ended long ago, had more dared to speak up about what has transpired for decades. !!
!!
'PM sector investors have just been royally played – first they are encouraged to pile in on gold’s breakout to new highs, which occurred when it was already very overbought, and now they are being pressured into barfing their holdings before the sector turns around and then goes on to break out for real. Here’s how powerful forces set the trap – and this, incidentally, is why in this age of instant communications it takes them 3 days to report the latest COT data after they are in possession of it – during the week before gold’s dramatic but short-lived breakout last weekend, and after the COT data cut off point at Tuesday’s close, they piled on massive short positions, especially in silver. Then, after allowing gold to break out briefly overnight Sunday - Monday, they tank the gold price in very thin trading, instantly destroying the bullish sentiment so that would be investors pull their bids and the price plummets. They did the same with silver. Now we come to the 2nd part of their game to wrong-foot the majority of investors in the sector and fleece them not just once but twice – they force prices low enough so that the pain becomes unbearable and longs barf their holdings, which Big Money then happily scoops up at knockdown prices before the sector turns on a dime and goes roaring back up again. This is my take on it and I may be wrong. I believe that those who engineered these moves will cover their shorts with huge profits going into this week and reverse to long and we will see prices stabilize before they recover...'
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Post by Entendance on Dec 12, 2023 3:17:47 GMT -5
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Post by Entendance on Dec 13, 2023 0:43:54 GMT -5
10:45: What would happen if paper gold trading halted? ⬇️
London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells Kinesis Money's "Live from the Vault" program that last Sunday night's explosion in the gold price was probably an Eastern-based "warning shot" against the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, prompting emergency intervention against gold by the U.S. "plunge protection team" to deflect the attack.
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Post by Entendance on Dec 16, 2023 4:22:28 GMT -5
Costco sold more than $100 million in gold bars last quarter
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Post by Entendance on Dec 18, 2023 3:41:45 GMT -5
Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics this week interviewed GATA's consultant on the Bank for International Settlements about the bank's heavy and largely surreptitious intervention in the gold market via gold swaps on behalf of the bank's central bank members.
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Post by Entendance on Dec 22, 2023 0:57:18 GMT -5
It may seem quaint, but there was a time pre-1971 when you could divide the monetary aggregates (there are several) by the amount of gold held by the US Treasury and you would derive the reference price of $35/oz. And in 1980 when gold soared to $800/oz the dollar was 100% backed by the gold the US held. What is shocking is the amount of paper money created since that time frame. If one were to do the same calculation today (monetary aggregates/gold ounces held by the US Treasury) it would take a gold price of $80,000/oz to balance the equation. A far cry from today’s $2,050/oz. - Clive Hale
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Post by Entendance on Dec 23, 2023 5:47:05 GMT -5
Apr 12, 2015 Gold: if you purchased it and you can't hold it in your hand, it isn't yours.
Aug 25, 2016 The fate of the global economy was decided decades ago.
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Post by Entendance on Dec 28, 2023 3:27:29 GMT -5
'...The outlook for the Gold price in 2024 is all about the dollar, rather than Gold. From Russia taking the presidency of BRICS next week, to the failure of America’s proxy war in Ukraine along with Middle Eastern uncertainties there will be much that can go wrong for the dollar’s global status. No wonder the outlook for the dollar price of Gold is so good'
The monetary perspective — whether to forecast values for Gold or fiat currencies
2024 is likely to expose the US dollar’s fragility
Reverse repos have declined this year
The return to inflationary QE appears inevitable
The foreign exchange’s negative vote
The consequences of conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza
China’s renminbi (yuan) policy
Finally, some comments on Gold
⬇️
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Post by Entendance on Dec 30, 2023 5:45:32 GMT -5
It seems to me that the forces at play in silver, both working for and against sharply higher prices, show no signs of letting up. However, common sense and logic dictate that such diametrically-opposed forces point to an eventual end to the stalemate – with the only real question being when. Since these opposing forces have been in play for 40 years, they have taken on a life of their own and the purpose of this review is a brief overview and summary.
Let me start with the forces that have worked to suppress and manipulate the price of silver to be much lower than any objective analysis would suggest, both on an absolute basis and relative to just about any other commodity or asset, most specifically, gold. The direct cause of silver’s 40-year price suppression is collusive commercial (mostly bank) paper positioning on the COMEX, the world’s leading precious metals derivatives exchange.
So pervasive is the influence of silver pricing on the COMEX, that it has become the sole price-setter for silver throughout the world. Now there are suggestions that the world silver price-setting mechanism may be shifting (say, to China), so I would agree the moment the control of the COMEX changes in any meaningful way, the decades-old price suppression will have ended – although I don’t personally suspect it will be due to China.
The key to the control and suppression of silver prices on the COMEX by the collusive commercials has been the willingness of their principal counterparties, the managed money traders, to be led into and out from futures contract positions by contrived and rigged-price signals. So, while there have been significant and quite sharp silver price rallies from time to time over the scope of 40 years, the collusive COMEX commercials have mostly prevailed with the end result being that that the price of silver is near-universally considered to be extremely under-valued.
But the collusive COMEX commercials have not succeeded in dominating and controlling silver prices for 40 years in a vacuum, as they have enjoyed critically-important assistance from none other than those whose main mission is to ensure markets, such as COMEX silver futures, are free from the practices and manipulation clearly evident to have occurred. Sad as it is to say, not only has the primary federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, looked away and sanctioned the decades-old COMEX silver price manipulation, but over time, assistance to the forces of price suppression has come to include the Department of Justice and the US Treasury Dept., among other government agencies – all of which require an oath of office to uphold the law by key officials. Plus, there is the designated industry self-regulator, the CME Group, which has also been highly negligent and complicit in not ending the blatant COMEX silver price manipulation, but, at least, no one there ever took an oath to uphold the law.
I still maintain that those supposed to enforce and uphold the law and have failed to do so for decades can’t do so now because that would bring great shame on all these organizations, government and otherwise, for failing to have done so previously. That plus the fact that the principal agents of the COMEX silver manipulation over time, like JPMorgan, just happen to be systemically-important financial institutions, generally treated with kid gloves by the regulators. All these supposed-regulators are just as responsible and guilty as a primary force in not letting up on the continued price suppression of silver – along with the collusive COMEX commercials.
Admittedly, the forces intent on keeping a firm cap on silver prices are not only powerful, but show no signs of letting up and if there were any other plausible explanation for why silver prices have remained so depressed for decades, I’m sure those explanations would be apparent by now. Instead, as I’ve indicated, there is now a near-universal agreement that silver prices are too low – with more than ever pointing to an artificial price control emanating from the COMEX. As powerful as this growing consensus should prove to be, there are other remarkably strong forces clashing against the forces of continued silver price suppression, which also feature every sign of not letting up.
The strongest force pointing to sharply higher silver prices just happens to be the strongest primal force in economics – the law of supply and demand. The law of supply and demand dictates that whenever the current supply of any commodity is insufficient in meeting current demand, then it is only a matter of time before the depletion of existing inventories required to meet the shortfall between current supply and demand is complete. At the point of true inventory depletion, then the law of supply and demand dictates that prices must rise sufficiently to increase supply and decrease demand to the point of inventory replenishment.
Since there can be no question that the law of supply and demand in silver cannot possibly “let up” until prices rise sufficiently (sharply), once the ongoing inventory depletion is complete – the only wild card is when will silver inventories reach the maximum level of depletion. Not coincidently, this issue has been of prime interest to me, as readers should be aware.
In silver, there are two kinds of bullion inventory (in 1000-oz bar form) – recorded and unrecorded. Together, I believe the two categories total around two billion oz in total world inventories, currently worth less than $50 billion (as compared to more than $6 trillion in gold bullion inventories). Recorded silver bullion inventories amount to 1.3 billion oz, or 65% of the 2 billion oz in total inventories, and are in the form of all the silver ETF and investment vehicles, plus the holdings in the COMEX warehouses. Unrecorded silver bullion inventories (700 million oz) are held by those outside the recorded inventories.
Over the past three years, after increasing to all-time high levels of 1.7 billion oz in early 2021, recorded silver bullion inventories have fallen by 400 million oz, to 1.3 billion oz currently. By definition, it cannot be known as to what occurred in unrecorded silver inventories, but documented flows of many hundreds of millions of silver oz to India, for instance (not included in world bullion inventories) suggest no increase, but also a decrease in unrecorded silver bullion inventories. About 4 months ago, the dramatic 400 million oz reduction in recorded silver bullion inventories that began in early 2021, came to an end. This wasn’t a surprise to me, as I (somewhat prematurely, as it turned out) speculated earlier this year that the massive reduction in recorded silver bullion inventories would end.
While, I suppose, there still may some room for additional drawdowns in recorded silver bullion inventories, I don’t think so, and, regardless, wouldn’t alter the reasoning behind my belief that we’ve seen the end of the silver inventory reduction. Quite simply, I believe that the remaining recorded silver inventories are owned by investors which are not inclined to sell their holdings until silver prices are sharply higher. As such, I believe we are at the effective end of maximum silver inventory depletion and at the point at which, according to the ironclad dictates of the law of supply and demand, that silver prices must rise and rise sharply. This is a force that shows no sign of letting up at current suppressed prices.
But here is where it gets tricky, in a good way. Because silver is also a basic investment asset, it is subject to the same forces that apply to all other investments, namely, collective investment interest (buying) becomes most apparent as the price of any investment asset rises. It is because the price of silver has been so thoroughly suppressed for so many decades that investors, as a whole, have refrained from buying it - with only those who have taken the time to look below the price surface choosing to buy it.
So, while it has not kicked-in for most of the nearly 40 years I have been immersed in silver (saving for a brief spell into the run-up in prices in early 2011), the basic collective investor buying demand for assets increasing in price has yet to take place in earnest in silver – because its price has been suppressed so successfully. But since I see no indication that this general investment behavior hasn’t applied to all other investment assets, I have no reason to believe it won’t apply to silver when prices rise in earnest. Once initiated, it’s hard for me to imagine how investment demand for silver will let up on ever-increasing prices until great price highs are achieved.
At the same time, this new coming collective investment demand for silver on higher prices will not cause any reduction in basic silver industrial demand until prices rise very sharply. In fact, since silver industrial demand will continue, suddenly augmented by new investment demand, there will be a shocking increase in overall total demand, not at all typical under the basic law of supply and demand. That’s because silver is the only commodity with a true dual-demand profile – industrial and investment. This creates the highly-unique circumstance that once the silver price rise starts in earnest, it will take shockingly higher prices before the law of supply and demand fully kicks in and demand falls and supply increases. Once started, it will take some great time and price increase to fully burn out and increasing silver prices will not let up until it does.
In summary, silver faces two strongly opposing price forces, neither of which shows signs of letting up. But the forces of price suppression, even though led by those at the pinnacle of power, have been so successful in suppressing silver prices that this success is now in place to work against them. No one, no matter how powerful and well-connected they may be, can prevail against the forces of the law of supply and demand indefinitely. Once a physical shortage has come into existence, as has been evident in silver for quite some time, only further depletion of existing inventories can hold off the inevitable turn up in prices. By all appearances, we are at, or past that point of maximum inventory depletion in silver.
Lastly, given the extreme power behind the force suppressing the price for decades and the even greater power of the force behind the law of supply and demand, when the matter is resolved in favor of the law and supply and demand , as it must, the price resolution cannot be any less than epic and historic. -Ted Butler
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